Trump v Biden: who’s ahead in the latest polls? (2024)

Last updated on July 8th 2024

Latest polling averages, %

Median

Low

Likely range

High

On November 5th Americans will go to the polls to elect their next president. The contest will feel familiar: the two main candidates are the same as in 2020. Joe Biden, the incumbent, faced no viable competition for the Democratic nomination. Though a disastrous debate performance in June made some Democrats question his fitness for the job, putting his candidacy in doubt. His predecessor in office, Donald Trump, easily saw off a crowded field in the Republican primary.

Both men are widely disliked. Mr Biden’s presidency has been defined by high inflation, big industrial-policy bills and turmoil abroad, and worries about his age continue to plague his campaign. Mr Trump’s supporters tried to overturn his election loss in 2020; he faces federal charges over his alleged participation in that scheme and has been convicted of a felony relating to his 2016 presidential campaign. The election will be less a popularity contest than a referendum on which man Americans think is the least bad option. Our election forecast shows the chances each man has of winning a second term in office.

Key dates

The election is still many months away, but with the two candidates now in effect decided, the campaign can begin in earnest.

Jun 27th

First presidential debate

Joe Biden and Donald Trump met for the first of two debates. Normally, the candidates hash out important issues (or at least trade insults) for 90 minutes. Instead Mr Trump spent his time telling outrageous falsehoods, while Mr Biden’s catastrophic performance undermined his candidacy.

Jul 15th

Republican National Convention

Typically a four-day pageant for the party’s chosen nominee, the party will formally select a presidential and vice-presidential candidate in Milwaukee.

Aug 19th

Democratic National Convention

Similar to the Republican convention a month earlier, the Democrats will formally nominate their presidential candidate in Chicago.

Sep 10th

Second presidential debate

The two main candidates will meet again a week after Labor Day (traditionally when Americans begin to pay attention to the election).

Nov 5th

Election day

Polls open on a Tuesday in early November, though early voting and mail-in ballot initiatives will mean many Americans will have already voted. Counting ballots will go on for weeks in some states.

Jan 6th 2025

Results certification

Once all votes are counted, the results must be certified by Congress. Normally a pro-forma event, in 2021 Mr Trump’s supporters stormed the Capitol building to stop the certification. He is on trial for his alleged role in the attack.

Jan 20th 2025

Inauguration

The new (well, newly re-elected) president will be sworn into office for his second term on the steps of the Capitol building in Washington, DC.

The candidates

Joe Biden

President

Joe Biden, at 81, will be the oldest ever major-party presidential candidate, breaking his own record set in 2020. Mr Biden won a seat in the Senate at the age of 30 and held it for over three decades. He made failed bids for president in 1988 and 2008, and served as Barack Obama’s vice-president. Despite a reputation as a centrist Democrat, in office he has pushed to expand the state and lobbied for unions. He has also led an international coalition to support Ukraine against Russia’s invasion. Although he promises to “finish the job” if re-elected, many voters think the job may finish him.

Donald Trump

Former president

Donald Trump’s extraordinary campaign follows his no less remarkable term as America’s 45th president, which concluded shortly after his supporters staged an armed attack on the Capitol. His alleged role in instigating the attack and a broader effort to overturn results of the 2020 election resulted in two criminal indictments, in federal court and Georgia state court. He faces two others, totalling 91 felony charges. The 78-year-old denies all wrongdoing. Mr Trump is a self-proclaimed billionaire, who made (and lost) much of his money in real estate, before he became a reality-TV star. This time his campaign pairs familiar culture-war issues (building a border wall, “left-wing gender insanity”) with fresh grievances (against the lawyers prosecuting his cases and the judges overseeing them).

Sources:

FiveThirtyEight; national polls; The Economist