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A new set of Times/Siena polls, including one with The Philadelphia Inquirer, reveal an erosion of support for the president among young and nonwhite voters upset about the economy and Gaza.
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THE NEW YORK TIMES
THE PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER
SIENA COLLEGE POLL
April 28 to May 9
If the 2024 presidential election
were held today, who would you
vote for if the candidates were
Joe Biden and Donald Trump?
Trump
45%
Biden
47%
Wisconsin
44
47
Pennsylvania
42
49
Arizona
42
49
Michigan
39
49
Georgia
38
50
Nevada
Margin of error
THE NEW YORK TIMES
THE PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER
SIENA COLLEGE POLL
April 28 to May 9
If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidateswere Joe Biden and Donald Trump?
Trump
45%
Biden
47%
Wisconsin
44
47
Pennsylvania
42
49
Arizona
42
49
Michigan
39
49
Georgia
38
50
Nevada
Margin of error
By Nate Cohn
Donald J. Trump leads President Biden in five crucial battleground states, a new set of polls shows, as a yearning for change and discontent over the economy and the war in Gaza among young, Black and Hispanic voters threaten to unravel the president’s Democratic coalition.
The surveys by The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer found that Mr. Trump was ahead among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup against Mr. Biden in five of six key states: Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden led among registered voters in only one battleground state, Wisconsin.
[You can find the full results of the polls, including the exact questions that were asked, here. You can see answers to common questions about our polling process here.]
The race was closer among likely voters. Mr. Trump led in five states as well, but Mr. Biden edged ahead in Michigan while trailing only narrowly in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. While Mr. Biden won all six of those states in 2020, victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin would be enough for him to win re-election, provided he won everywhere else he did four years ago.
The results were similar in a hypothetical matchup that included minor-party candidates and the independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who won an average of 10 percent of the vote across the six states and drew roughly equally from the two major-party candidates.
Image
How support for the candidates differ
between registered and likely voters
Registered
voters
Likely
voters
Biden
Difference
Arizona
42%
43%
+1
Georgia
39
41
+2
Michigan
42
47
+5
Nevada
38
38
+1
Pennsylvania
44
45
+1
Wisconsin
47
46
–1
Registered
voters
Likely
voters
Trump
Difference
Arizona
49%
49%
+1
Georgia
49
50
+2
Michigan
49
46
–4
Nevada
50
51
+2
Pennsylvania
47
48
+1
Wisconsin
45
47
+2
How support for the candidates differ
between registered and likely voters
Registered
voters
Likely
voters
Biden
Difference
42%
43%
+1
Arizona
39
41
+2
Georgia
42
47
+5
Michigan
38
38
+1
Nevada
44
45
+1
Pennsylvania
47
46
–1
Wisconsin
Registered
voters
Likely
voters
Trump
Difference
49%
49%
Arizona
+1
49
50
Georgia
+2
49
46
Michigan
–4
50
51
+2
Nevada
47
48
+1
Pennsylvania
45
47
+2
Wisconsin
Most Americans think the system
needs to change …
Which comes closest to your view about
the political and economic system in America,
even if none are exactly right?
The system needs ...
... no changes 2%
... to be
torn down
entirely
... major
changes
... minor
changes
14%
55%
27%
Don’t know/
declined to say 2%
… and they think that Donald Trump
would bring more change …
If [this candidate] won the election, do you think
nothing would change, there would be minor
changes to how things work, there would be
major changes to how things work, or he would
tear down the system completely?
Tear down
system
entirely
Nothing
would change
Minor changes
13%
11%
39%
32%
Biden
Major
changes
Don’t know/
declined to say 4%
3%
25%
45%
23%
Trump
4%
… but they are split on whether that
change would be good or bad.
Do you think the changes that [this candidate]
would make would be good for the country
or bad for the country, or neither good nor bad?
Somewhat
or very good
Somewhat
or very bad
Nothing
would change
24%
15%
23%
32%
Biden
Neither
Don’t know/
declined to say 5%
5%
43%
12%
35%
Trump
4%
Most Americans think the system needs to change …
Which comes closest to your view about the political and economic
system in America, even if none are exactly right?
The system needs ...
... to be
torn down
entirely
... no changes 2%
... major changes
... minor changes
14%
55%
27%
Don’t know/
declined to say 2%
… and they think that Donald Trump would bring more change …
If [this candidate] won the election, do you think nothing would change,
there would be minor changes to how things work, there would be major
changes to how things work, or he would tear down the system completely?
Tear down
system
entirely
Nothing
would change
Minor changes
13%
11%
39%
32%
Biden
Major
changes
Don’t know/
declined to say 4%
25%
45%
23%
Trump
4%
3%
… but they are split on whether that change would be good or bad.
Do you think the changes that [this candidate] would make would be good
for the country or bad for the country, or neither good nor bad?
Somewhat
or very good
Somewhat
or very bad
Nothing
would change
Neither
24%
15%
23%
32%
Biden
Don’t know/
declined to say 5%
43%
12%
35%
Trump
4%
5%
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